Clue:
Just when the winter of 20 19 has arrived, the electric vehicle industry is facing unprecedented difficulties. "165438+1October 27th, Qi Lu, professor of Peking University and chairman of the academic committee of battery" Davos ",said almost pessimistically at the 7th China (Changzhou Jintan) International Summit Forum on Battery New Energy Industry.
It is understood that since the beginning of this year, accidents of new energy vehicles have occurred frequently, with long battery life and low battery residual value, which has seriously affected the confidence of the consumer market. Coupled with the pressure brought by factors such as shrinking subsidies and foreign capital entering China, the reshuffle of the industry has accelerated, and most enterprises are facing many "disasters" such as "high cost, falling prices, falling demand, difficult financing and difficult repayment".
At the 17th China (Guangzhou) International Automobile Exhibition on 20 19, how to deal with the "post-subsidy era" with rapidly shrinking increment, how to break the "cold winter" and welcome the "spring" has also become the focus of attention in the industry. It is understood that among the vehicles participating in this Guangzhou Auto Show 1050, new energy vehicles account for 180, with a ratio of
According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in June were 95,000 and 75,000 respectively, down 45.6% from the same period last year. In fact, this is the fourth consecutive month that the production and sales of new energy vehicles have declined after peaking in June this year.
The sales of new energy vehicles declined, and the power battery industry, as the "heart" of new energy vehicles, bore the brunt. In an interview with China Business News, Yu Qingjiao, secretary-general of Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance and secretary-general of the Davos Organizing Committee for Batteries, said that with the downturn of the automobile market, the investment enthusiasm of the power battery industry is cooling down, the expansion of production is becoming more and more rational, and a new round of deep reshuffle in the market has begun.
Next, let's take a look at the main reasons why new energy vehicles encounter the cold winter.
First, the overall downturn in the auto market.
In 20 18, 53.5% of dealers in China suffered operating losses, while only 29% made profits in the first half of 20 19. The huge automobile group, once one of the top 500 Chinese enterprises, filed for bankruptcy, which shows that the dealers are in a difficult situation.
In June this year, the domestic new energy vehicle market seized the last "carnival" before the subsidy retreated, reaching the highest point of monthly sales of 6.5438+0.52 million vehicles. Since then, the sales market has turned sharply, and in July, it fell to 10, and the market continued to bottom out. Many people in the industry admit that the impact of policy retreat is so great.
According to the data of China Automobile Association, in 20 18, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were1270,000 and12.56 million respectively, and the gap between the first one this year and the total sales last year was about 300,000. In the past four months, the sales volume of new energy vehicles has been maintained at the level of 70,000-80,000 vehicles, and it is difficult to see obvious month-on-month growth in the following months 165438+ 10 and 65438+February. This means that in the past ten years, China has vigorously promoted new energy vehicles, which may lead to negative annual sales growth for the first time.
Affected by the macroeconomic situation, it is expected that the overall market demand of the automobile industry will remain weak in the fourth quarter. Due to the changes in the price system of fuel vehicles and the sharp drop in subsidies for new energy vehicles, the sales volume of the new energy vehicle industry is not as good as that of the previous period. It is expected that the profit of the Group's new energy automobile business will also decline to some extent compared with the same period last year. BYD said in its third-quarter earnings report.
Second, subsidies have fallen, and production and sales have fallen into a "stagflation period"
At the moment when subsidies have fallen sharply, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are falling into a "stagflation period", and promoting consumption is becoming one of the key points of the whole industrial chain.
According to the latest data, from June of 20 19 to June of 20 10, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 983,000 and 947,000 respectively, increasing by1/0.7% and10/respectively. "We predict that the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China will be around115000 ~125000 in 20 19, which is the same as last year or slightly lower." Yu Qingjiao said.
In the eyes of the industry, under the impact of the sharp drop in subsidies, the sales of new energy vehicles have experienced a "four consecutive declines". This year, the sales of new energy vehicles have experienced negative growth for the first time, which is the first decline in the past decade.
Shi Jianhua, Deputy Secretary-General of China Automobile Industry Association, also admitted that at the beginning of this year, we predicted that the sales of new energy vehicles would reach 6.5438+0.6 million this year. However, with the decline of new energy subsidies, the sales of new energy vehicles continued to decline, and this target was lowered to 654.38+0.5 million. But from the current sales situation, this goal is difficult to achieve.
It is understood that this year is the year with the largest decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles in China. State subsidies have been reduced by more than 50%, while land subsidies have been reduced to zero one year ahead of schedule. With the rapid decline of subsidies, the bubble of high industrial valuation has also begun to recede, and the upstream and downstream of the new energy automobile industry chain will also usher in a deeper reshuffle.
At present, the new energy automobile industry is still greatly affected by policy changes, but the effects of policies such as "double points" and automobile consumption promotion have not yet appeared, and the voice for policy stability in the industry is rising. An expert in the new energy vehicle industry, who did not want to be named, said that relevant departments are currently considering introducing a stimulus policy for the use of new energy vehicles to promote the development of the new energy vehicle consumer market.
The investment enthusiasm of the power battery industry of new energy vehicles has also cooled down with the downturn of the automobile market, and the expansion of production has become increasingly rational. According to the statistics of Power Battery Application Branch of China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, in June and October this year, the installed capacity of power batteries in China was about 4.07GWh, down 3 1.35% year-on-year, and the installed capacity of power batteries has dropped for the third consecutive month.
Third, the new energy vehicle market may face a change.
In the cold winter environment of the automobile market, some new forces making cars fluctuate violently. According to the survey data of relevant institutions, from the sales of new car brands in September this year, the four brands of Weilai, Tucki, Weimar and He Zhong are still fruitful; As the second echelon, Xinte, Du Yun, Future, Electronic Cafe and Zero Run also have a certain share, but Baiteng, FF, Min 'an, Ranger Auto and Land Ark are still outside the delivery door, and some of them have even disappeared.
In the month of 5438+ 10, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 95,000 and 75,000 respectively, with the output increasing by 6.2% and the sales volume decreasing by 5.9%. Decreased by 35.4% and 45.6% respectively. Among the main varieties of new energy vehicles, compared with last month, the output of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles has increased, but the sales volume has declined to varying degrees. In addition, the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles decreased by nearly 40% month-on-month, which was higher than other new energy vehicles.
In this regard, the relevant person in charge of the China Automobile Association said that the biggest reason for the decline in sales of new energy vehicles was the decline in subsidies. From June 65438+ 10 to June 65438+ 10, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 983,000 and 947,000 respectively, up by1/0.7% and 10.2% respectively. Among the main varieties of new energy vehicles, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles maintained a year-on-year growth, and the growth rate was lower than that of10-September 65438+, and the decline of plug-in hybrid vehicles was expanded.
It is generally believed in the industry that in addition to the weak overall demand environment of the automobile market and the challenges brought by foreign-funded enterprises after the opening of the market, some self-owned brand automobile enterprises rely too much on subsidies, joint venture brands and lack of independent core technologies, which is also one of the reasons for the sharp decline in profits of automobile enterprises after the subsidy has retreated. In order to solve the above problems, car companies must get rid of subsidies and strive to build brand power in order to survive and further develop.
Without the support of new energy subsidies, we can reflect on how much of the previous high growth in new energy sales came from the real needs of consumers and how much was used for traveling and operating vehicles. Otherwise, the rapid growth of new energy vehicle sales will easily give car companies and even the automobile industry an illusion that the new energy vehicle market is developing well. Xu Haidong, Assistant Secretary-General of China Automobile Association, stressed that this is a good opportunity for China's new energy vehicles to begin to reflect after experiencing high growth, and after this round of reshuffle, the new energy vehicle market may resume positive growth next year.
Fourth, frequent accidents have hit consumer confidence.
Similar to the continuous decline in sales, the frequent safety accidents of new energy vehicles have also made consumers "discouraged" from new energy vehicles.
Especially in the first half of this year, many new energy automobile brands at home and abroad, including Tesla and Weilai Automobile, fell into the "spontaneous combustion door" one after another, which made the new energy automobile industry fall into a word-of-mouth crisis. It is understood that since April this year, Weilai ES8 has spontaneously ignited in Jiading, Shanghai, Xi 'an, Shaanxi and Wuhan, Hubei, which not only caused huge economic losses to Weilai Automobile, but also caused great losses to its brand image.
Since June 27th this year, Weilai Automobile has recalled 4,803 Weilai ES8 vehicles with power battery packs, which were produced from April 2nd, 200018 to June 9th, 2000 10, accounting for nearly 30% of the total delivery in the same period, and the recall cost alone reached 339 million yuan. This has also become an important reason why Weilai Automobile's profit loss reached 3.285 billion yuan in the second quarter of this year.
Fifth, most enterprises have poor financing.
165438+1October13rd, Xpeng Motors completed the $400 million series C financing. Near the end of the year, this is the third new car manufacturer to obtain equity financing this year. In fact, since the beginning of this year, the financing of new car-making forces has generally not been smooth. Weilai was previously introduced into Huzhou government to raise 5 billion yuan, but was later denied; For Baiteng Automobile, which has not yet been mass-produced and delivered, the C-round financing is also delayed ... It seems that the capital and the automobile market have entered the cold winter at the same time, which is really fatal for the new capital-intensive and technology-intensive car-making forces, because there is no technology without money. The more cruel reality is that many new car-making forces have died on the eve of the winter.
Since 20 10, China has strongly supported the development of new energy vehicles. Not only the state has given a lot of financial subsidies to new energy vehicles, but also local governments have given matching subsidies. As a result, countless new car-making forces and traditional car companies have participated. At the peak, there are more than 400 start-up new energy enterprises that raise the banner of building cars, and all kinds of capital also flock in.
China's automobile industry started late, and the traditional fuel vehicle industry chain has always been dominated by European, American, Japanese and Korean enterprises. It is a breakthrough wish of China automobile industry to change lanes and overtake with new energy. Now, ten years have passed. Since the middle of this year, subsidies have fallen sharply, and the sales of new energy vehicles have also declined, which has been declining for four consecutive months. According to the latest data of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales volume of new energy vehicles from June 65,438+0 to June 54,38+00 in 2009 was 947,000, the growth rate continued to drop compared with June 65,438+0-September, among which the sales volume of June 65,438+00 was 75,000, a sharp drop of 45.6% year-on-year. It can be seen that the rapid growth of new energy vehicles has come to an abrupt end. The China Automobile Association believes that the annual target of 6.5438+0.5 million vehicles will be difficult to achieve even after the reduction.
At the same time, the capital market is also rapidly cooling down, and some traditional institutional investors, including large funds and private equity funds, are very cautious about investing in new car manufacturers. Therefore, when the C-round financing of Xpeng Motors was successful, Gu Hong, president of Xpeng Motors, said happily that "the proportion of institutional investors is very high, which means the recognition of mainstream capital." However, he reported good news rather than bad news. Previously, Xpeng Motors had predicted that the financing amount of Series C was 600 million US dollars, which not only failed to reach the expected scale, but also fell far short of the financing target of 30 billion yuan for the whole year.
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In the cold winter environment of the automobile market, with the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles, the safety accidents of new energy vehicles occur frequently, and the new forces of making cars fluctuate violently, so the industrial chain of new energy vehicles has ushered in a deep reshuffle. But I believe that under the environment of green energy and sustainable development, new energy vehicles will be the future development trend. Local enterprises must firmly grasp the short window of the future, continue to innovate rapidly, form their own unique capabilities, and then highlight the tight encirclement in this big wave of sand-scouring campaign to win the advantage in the same stage competition with various new energy automobile manufacturers, including multinational automobile giants.